Earlier this year, our proprietary data led us to make a bold prediction: we estimated that the official United States unemployment rate would reach 5% by July 2015 (at the time, the rate was 6.3%). The report was published on HBR here, and the reader comments were aggressive, with many figuratively and one or two literally encouraging me to heave my projections into the trash bin. It seems one never wins in making bold projections, but in this case, the data was pointing to an obvious fact: we were massively underestimating the amount of jobs that would come available.
Why the Falling U.S. Unemployment Rate Matters
Research says we’ve been massively underestimating the number of jobs that would become available.
November 18, 2014