Planned Opportunism

“Planned opportunism” is the author’s term for responding to an unpredictable future by paying attention to weak signals—early evidence of emerging trends from which it is possible to deduce important changes in demography, technology, customer tastes and needs, and economic, environmental, regulatory, and political forces. That attention gives rise to fresh perspectives and nonlinear thinking, which help an organization imagine and plan for various plausible futures. Planned opportunism is a discipline that creates a “circulatory system” for new ideas; develops the capacity to prioritize, investigate, and act on those ideas; and builds an adaptive culture that embraces continual change.

Govindarajan illustrates his thesis with several compelling company stories. For example, Tata Consultancy Services decided to divest its fast-growing call-center operations at the height of the boom in that business, because its leaders could see that technologies were moving to the cloud and that global enterprises would eventually demand higher-level, more strategic outsourced services. Call centers would just get in the way of that future. And Hasbro, the toy and game maker, acted on numerous technological and demographic shifts in the 1990s to significantly outpace its leading competitor, Mattel.