The year 2020 will enter the history books as the year in which a new deadly coronavirus brought the world to a halt. Pharmaceutical companies jumped to the rescue with major investments in vaccine research and development. Last month, one pharmaceutical company after the other started releasing insights about the efficacy of their candidate vaccines. While these announcements have major implications for the world’s economy in 2021, they also provide valuable lessons for managers who want to use data to make better decisions.
Covid-19 Vaccine Trials Are a Case Study on the Challenges of Data Literacy
First lesson: Big data is often smaller than it appears.
December 11, 2020
Illustration by Kelly Romanaldi
Summary.
It’s dangerously easy to misinterpret data, especially when it’s reported in percentages rather than absolute numbers. The author showcases a number of dangers by focusing on the vaccine-efficacy results reported in November of 2020. He then shows how similar dangers can apply in business contexts, and offers three main lessons for managers hoping to make good decisions using data: be wary of big data, be wary of precision, and beware of post-diction.
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Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Digital Intelligence . Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Excel in a world that's being continually transformed by technology.