Demographic change is a constant force. College campuses are often at the forefront of the shifting composition of each generation. For example, non-Hispanic whites are not projected to become a minority of the U.S. population until mid-century, but Wiliam Frey, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, points out that among those 18 and younger, the transition will be as soon as 2020. The import of that milestone is already clearly evident on campuses across the country.
Americans Are Having Fewer Kids. What Will That Mean for Higher Education?
As the number of prospective students declines, universities will have to adapt.
October 17, 2019
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Summary.
Since the Great Recession in 2008, the total fertility rate (a measure of lifetime fertility) has fallen by almost 20%. Tracing forward 18 years, we can anticipate a sizable decline in prospective college students beginning in 2026. While declining fertility has implications for the entire U.S. economy, the education sector will be among the first to confront its consequences. Particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, where declines are already well underway, we should anticipate ongoing disruption, innovation, and increased price competition. While it is impossible to foresee exactly how things will play out, it is all but sure that the reduction in fertility rates will create new pressures in higher education over the next decade that will speed innovation.